The market value of Maotai fell below 2 trillion yuan, and 1499 yuan of flying Maotai was supplied in large quantities, and it was empty on the line.

Yesterday, Maotai rushed to the hot search because its share price fell below 1,600 yuan/share and its market value fell below 2 trillion yuan. However, Moutai is still in demand in the product market.

Every holiday, Kweichow Moutai will put the original price of Feitian Maotai on the online and offline platforms to meet the holiday needs of consumers. This year is no exception. As the Spring Festival in the Year of the Loong approaches, the online and offline announcements of the launch of Feitian Maotai before the Spring Festival are made one after another. Tmall Supermarket recently announced that the platform will release 50,000 bottles of 1,499 yuan Feitian Maotai to the market during the New Year Festival from January 17th to January 29th.

While Feitian Moutai was snapped up, Jiachen the Year of the Loong Kweichow Moutai was also highly sought after. On January 17th, "I Maotai" announced that more than 6 million people participated in the subscription of Kweichow Moutai in Jiachen the Year of the Loong every day, which was 72% higher than that in Guimao Rabbit last year.

Ping An Securities believes that the Spring Festival peak season is approaching, except for some pan-nationalized sub-high-end liquors, which are slow to return due to high inventory, the return of mainstream liquors is steadily advancing, and it is expected that there will be little problem for companies to achieve the goal of getting off to a good start.

Tmall 1499 yuan Feitian Maotai heavy supply users: simply can’t grab it

In order to stabilize the terminal market price of Feitian Maotai during the Spring Festival and meet the needs of consumers, recently, major platforms, mainly supermarkets and e-commerce, have increased the original price of Feitian Maotai.

Recently, Tmall announced that Feitian Maotai ushered in an annual heavy volume. It is reported that during the New Year Festival from January 17th to January 29th, 50,000 bottles of 1,499 yuan Feitian Maotai will be officially put on sale in Tmall Supermarket.

It is reported that the heavy volume of Maotai will be concentrated in three days and divided into five time periods. At 9: 00 pm on January 17, the volume was 10,000 bottles; At 8 o’clock and 9 o’clock on the evening of January 23, each volume was 10,000 bottles; At 8: 00 pm and 9: 00 pm on January 29, another 10,000 bottles were released, totaling 50,000 bottles.

Despite the increase in the volume, on the evening of the 17th, the Tmall platform Feitian Maotai was sold in seconds, and some consumers told reporters: "I can’t grab it at all!"

In the major supermarkets, the reporter saw that Wal-Mart, CR Vanguard and Xinhua all started flying Maotai at the original price. Wal-Mart announced that in January 2024, 10,000 bottles of original price Feitian Maotai were put into the direct supply activity, and the activity time was from January 1, 2024 to January 28, 2024.

CR Vanguard released a special event to welcome the Spring Festival in the Year of the Loong in 2024. Consumers who meet the relevant requirements for shopping from January 1, 2024 to January 10, 2024 can sign up for the original price Feitian Maotai Lottery from January 13, 2024 to January 15, 2024. In the first wave, 24,020 bottles of Feitian Maotai were put in. CR Vanguard’s poster shows that there is a second wave of special activities for the Spring Festival in the Year of the Loong, but the specific content has not been announced yet.

Xinhuadu Supermarket has also released a special event to welcome new customers. Consumers who meet the relevant shopping conditions can participate in the original price Feitian Maotai lucky draw, and a total of 8,998 bottles of original price Feitian Maotai were put in.

Analysts pointed out that the increase in direct sales channels is conducive to the flattening of the company’s channels, and it is also conducive to the stability of the price of Feitian Maotai during the Spring Festival.

Jiachen the Year of the Loong Kweichow Moutai is highly sought after

Although the market price of Jiachen the Year of the Loong Kweichow Moutai has dropped significantly, there is still room for profit relative to its guiding price, and the subscription of Jiachen the Year of the Loong Kweichow Moutai on I Moutai digital marketing platform continues to be hot.

On January 17th, I Maotai announced that with the opening of the series of activities of I Maotai on New Year’s Day in 2024, especially the launch of the Year of the Loong Kweichow Moutai in Jiachen, the number of daily users of I Maotai APP has continuously exceeded 8 million in recent days, up nearly 70% compared with the same period in 2023. On average, more than 6 million people participate in the subscription of Kweichow Moutai in Jiachen the Year of the Loong every day, which is 72% higher than that in Guimao Rabbit last year. The daily average number of registered users increased by 200,000, with a peak of 400,000, an increase of 146.8% compared with 2023.

On January 6th, the launch conference of Guizhou Maotai (Jiachen the Year of the Loong) Zodiac series products was held in Liangzhu, Zhejiang Province, and a total of Guizhou Maotai (Jiachen the Year of the Loong), moutai prince Liquor (Jiachen the Year of the Loong) and Guizhou Daqu (Jiachen the Year of the Loong) were released. Among them, the most concerned Kweichow Moutai (Jiachen the Year of the Loong) with a specification of 53 degrees and 500ml has a market guidance price of 2499 yuan per bottle.

Shortly after Jiachen the Year of the Loong Kweichow Moutai was released, the pre-sale prices of many platforms rose sharply, and the price of some platforms increased by over 5,000 yuan compared with the market guidance price. However, with the release of the supply of related products, the price quickly returned to a reasonable level. The reporter saw from the online platform that the latest price of the Year of the Loong Kweichow Moutai in Jiachen is about 3,700 yuan, which is "halved" compared with the second-hand price in the market when it was just listed.

Dealers on the Tmall platform told the Securities Times that the price trend of the Year of the Loong Zodiac wine was ultimately determined by the relationship between supply and demand. Earlier, when Jiachen the Year of the Loong Kweichow Moutai was just listed, it became hot in the market of new taste, collection and investment, and it was hyped by market middlemen, so there may be a price abnormality. However, as the supply of Kweichow Moutai in Jiachen the Year of the Loong continued to increase, the relationship between supply and demand eased and the price naturally returned to normal level.

Kweichow Moutai expects a net profit of 73.5 billion yuan in 2023.

Kweichow Moutai has released the production and operation in 2023. The company expects to achieve a total operating income of 149.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%; It is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will be about 73.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 17.2%.

In 2023, the company produced about 57,200 tons of Moutai base liquor and 42,900 tons of series base liquor. The operating income of Maotai liquor is about 125.8 billion yuan, and the operating income of series liquor is about 20.4 billion yuan.

Under the pressure of the liquor industry as a whole, Kweichow Moutai still achieved double-digit growth in 2023, and exceeded its annual performance target.

In the future, the factors affecting Maotai’s performance mainly include production capacity and price, especially the price has attracted much attention from the market. Kweichow Moutai has issued a major announcement, announcing that the ex-factory price of Kweichow Moutai (Feitian and Wuxing) will be raised by 53%vol from November 1, 2023, with an average increase of about 20%. This adjustment does not involve the market guidance price of products.

China Merchants Securities believes that the company raised the ex-factory price of Feitian and increased its performance, which fully demonstrated the determination and effectiveness of Maotai’s market-oriented and legal reform under the leadership of the current senior management team. At the same time, the company actively embraced the market to create new growth drivers, and extended the brand and channel capabilities of Feitian Maotai to non-standard and series wine products. Large items such as zodiac, boutique and 1935 began to contribute important income increments. Since the 14th Five-Year Plan, the growth center of the company has moved up to 15%-20%, which is expected to be maintained in the next two years.

According to soochow securities’s calculation, with a simplified calculation of about 20,000 tons and comprehensive consideration of tax deduction, the profit in 2024 will increase by about 5 billion yuan to 5.5 billion yuan, which is about 7% higher than the expected net profit returned to the mother in 2023.