It is better to fry paper than to fry stocks： I used to rely on my face to get goods, but now I rely on grabbing them.
Xinhua News Agency
Information photo
Notice of price adjustment received by the enterprise.
Photo by Zhan Lihua
Recently, there is a saying in the circle of paper business: it is better to fry paper than to fry stocks. However, it is not easy to get a share of this wave of price increases.
Xu Yongjun (a pseudonym) has been engaged in paper intermediate trade for more than 20 years. What he does is to get goods from various paper mills and distribute them to downstream production enterprises. The industry calls him a "second-seller". In the last two years, in the words of Xu Yongjun, "it is the best time to do business and the hardest time to do it".
Easy to do, because as long as there is paper in your hand, you are not afraid of not selling it; It’s hard to do, because having money in hand doesn’t necessarily mean you can get paper.
Xu Yongjun told Qianbao reporter about his recent story of buying and selling paper.
I used to rely on my face to get goods, but now I rely on robbing.
I mainly make white cardboard, which is the kind of paper used to make business cards, invitations and candy bags. From the end of 2016 to now, the overall price has increased by 50%~60%, which is the best market in the past 10 years. It stands to reason that May and June are the off-season and September is the peak season, but the notice of price adjustment of paper mills has hardly stopped during this period. I have been in the paper business for 20 years, and this is the first time I have encountered such a situation.
In the past, there were also price increases, which generally fell back more or less after several months. This time, it has been going on for nearly two years, almost only rising but not falling.
You say business is difficult. Last year, I made two or three million easily. I didn’t earn much because I didn’t eat the stock. People have warehouses to hoard goods. If they hoard goods for one more day, they will lie down to earn money. If they hoard goods for half a month, they will be able to make a profit once. You say business is easy. I basically get a notice of price increase from paper mills every week. When I have more money, it will go up three times a week, so I may not get the goods.
To what extent do you grab the goods?
Let’s put it this way. In the past, we basically "brushed our faces" with goods. Old customers greeted us, agreed in advance on how much they wanted, and paid 30% of the payment when they delivered the goods. Even the paper mill paid you in advance and settled it within one or two months. Not now. You can’t get the goods if you pay 30% or even 50% in advance. You must pay the money first and pick up the goods first. Some second-sellers want to get stuck and pay the deposit on the eve of the price adjustment of the paper mill. You think you are very stable. As a result, the order quantity for goods has already exceeded the supply quantity. When it is your turn to send your goods, the price has risen again. Therefore, all the goods we get now are full, not full, and we can’t grab paper at all.
Hangzhou "second-seller" runs Shandong to rent production line.
The price increase of paper raw materials seems to be not obvious to ordinary consumers. In fact, the retail price of household paper such as toilet paper we use every day has also increased by one or two hairs, but we usually don’t pay much attention to it. In terms of profit base, this increase is not small.
The most obvious evidence is the financial report. If you look at the statements of various paper mills last year, the profits are very high. Some people in the industry attribute the initiator of this wave of price increases to paper mills, hoping that the state will take control. I quite agree. In business, paper mills only follow the trend at most. A few years ago, when the profits of paper mills were as thin as paper, no one wronged them. It is normal for them to earn a little in the past two years. If a business only loses money, who else will do it In fact, since the second half of 2016, almost all commodities have been rising in price, and paper is just one of them. Because it was too weak before, it seemed a bit "out of control" when it broke out.
In fact, some time ago, a "second-seller" in Hangzhou had taken a group to rent a production line at a small and medium-sized paper factory in Shandong and produced their own paper. The production capacity of small and medium-sized paper mills is not so large. They rent out production lines and provide pulp channels, and the second-tier vendors produce and distribute their own paper. Although there are fewer varieties and specifications of paper, the paper price can be controlled by themselves and is relatively stable, and there is no way to do it without always looking at other people’s faces.
Friends around us, one sells equipment and the other reduces inventory.
Will this wave of price increases continue? We are also discussing these days. Personally, I am not optimistic, because the supply and demand chain of the market is already changing.
The friends around me are divided into two groups. Since last year, a group of printing companies have been selling equipment one after another. Most of them received foreign orders. Global bidding is your problem. Party A will not accept your quotation because of this, and the price of foreign paper raw materials has not risen sharply. That is to say, your competitors can make money after receiving the same order, but if you do one more order, it will be thanks to one. If you don’t receive it, the old customers will run the order, which is the same as cutting their own roads. The demand for printing plants has decreased, and the price increase is also powerless. Another group, who is in the paper business like me, made a fortune by hoarding goods last year, and dare not hoard more this year.
I just rented a warehouse of more than 2,000 square meters. Recently, the price of white cardboard has dropped a little. I didn’t make any money from the goods, but I lost 200,000. However, I ordered the goods from foreign paper mills in the next order, because the price of white cardboard in the market has been upside down. Even if the tariffs and other miscellaneous expenses are added, the final cost of imported white cardboard is about 20% cheaper than that of domestic paper mills. The only drawback is that it needs to be cut again. Like me, it’s better to fast-forward and fast-out, and the funds will be turned over once more. In fact, the final profit is not much different from that of those who hoard goods, and the risk is still small.
The price of paper fluctuates, so does the waste paper.
An old man asked about the purchase price of waste paper and was not willing to sell it.
The fluctuation of paper price also affects raw materials — — The price of waste paper.
Lao Zhang has been collecting waste products in Hang Cheng for more than ten years. At 5: 30 every morning, she and her husband go to several communities around the intersection of Airport Road and Tongxie Road to buy waste products, or collect them from other waste collectors. Among them, the waste paper box is his main acquisition target in the near future.
In the evening, they will gather a large number of cardboard boxes collected from various channels and splash them with tap water. On the one hand, it is convenient for folding and packaging, on the other hand, the wet water can still gain some weight. "If we don’t spill it, the waste station will spill it." Lao Zhang argued.
Waste paper is an important raw material in the paper industry.
In the past ten years, the purchase price of waste paper has almost presented a "U" shape — — Around 2008, the price of waste paper purchased from a family once reached more than one kilo in 1 yuan, and then decreased year by year, reaching the lowest point of 20 cents a kilo. However, since 2016, the purchase price of waste paper has gradually increased. Now, the price of waste paper purchased from families exceeds 9 cents per catty, and the price they sell to waste collection stations has also risen to about one catty in 1.2 yuan. Lao Zhang’s colleague, Sister Luo, who has been buying waste products near Pingfeng Street, feels the same way. She said that the purchase price of waste paper this year has approached the highest value more than a decade ago.
In the past two years, waste paper has been popular. The most obvious change is that when they bought only 23 cents a catty from family households, many families were too lazy to sell it, and the waste traders themselves found it hard. "Now it’s different. Many families are saving cardboard boxes, and there are old people at home. Sometimes they refuse to sell them after asking the price. Some residential properties are also because cleaning staff compete for cardboard boxes, and it is stipulated that it is not allowed to collect waste cardboard boxes in the residential area, otherwise it will be fined. "
The price increase of this wave of waste paper acquisition is indeed due to the recovery of the paper market. The paper industry needs waste paper as raw material, and the import of waste paper is restricted, so waste traders like Lao Zhang benefit from this wave.
Lao Zhang thinks that this is also related to the developed online shopping. In the past, the express delivery industry was not as developed as it is now, and the "output" of waste paper boards in many families was not high. Now it is a big deal for a community to accept it.
For papermaking enterprises, the cost is really high. The person in charge of a paper-making enterprise in Jiaxing said that in 2015, the purchase price of waste paper was only one ton in 900 yuan, and now it is 3,300 yuan. Sometimes the ex-factory price of our base paper is less than 3,000 yuan. He said that collecting waste paper is the biggest headache for paper-making enterprises now.